Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing software products, from enhancing user experiences with personalized recommendations to automating complex processes for efficiency. As AI continues to advance, understanding its potential impact is crucial for founders and product managers aiming to stay ahead of the curve.
The most well known concepts in strategic foresight are Speculative futures and the Futures Wheel.
Speculative futures is a strategic foresight approach that explores a wide range of possible futures to understand the implications of different trends and events.
This method goes beyond predicting the most likely outcomes, instead imagining various scenarios—including the plausible, probable, and preferable—to help organizations prepare for a range of potential realities. By considering these diverse futures, product managers and founders can develop more resilient strategies and adaptable product roadmaps.
The futures wheel is a visual brainstorming tool used to explore potential future impacts of a change or event.
The futures wheel is a specific tool within the broader realm of speculative futures. It was developed by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971, as a strategic foresight tool used to visualize and explore the potential consequences of a change or event. By mapping out first, second, and third-order effects in a structured manner, it helps individuals and organizations anticipate the ripple effects of new developments, such as AI integration, on their products and strategies.
This method encourages holistic thinking and informed decision-making, making it an invaluable resource for forward-thinking planning.
Here’s a brief explanation of each and how they can be used together:
Using the futures wheel within the speculative futures approach allows for detailed exploration of specific scenarios, making it easier for product managers and founders to understand and plan for the potential impacts on their software products.
